Across the November webinars, CONTEXT analysts painted a clear picture: Q4 is accelerating, and far more broadly than anyone expected even a month ago. Strong demand in Spain and Germany, a widespread uplift across most European markets, and renewed activity in software and high-value categories are setting up an encouraging finish to 2025.

Spain and Germany power ahead as Q4 strengthens

The single strongest theme in the November data is the extraordinary performance of Spain and Germany. Both markets continued to climb through Week 45 and 46, with Spain in particular pushing well above its historical seasonal patterns. According to the weekly trend charts in the 12 November and 19 November decks, Spain now leads all major Western European countries, with Germany following closely behind as its long-awaited recovery continues to take shape.

This uplift is not confined to the largest economies: almost every major and secondary European market is trending positively. From Portugal and Austria to Sweden, Norway and the Baltics, the November data shows momentum spreading across the region rather than concentrating in one or two hotspots.

PCs and components still dominate, but software begins to spark

Hardware categories remain the backbone of Q4 performance. PCs, components and displays continue to outperform, with storage, especially SSDs, showing strong activity and decreasing weeks of stock, signalling healthy sell-through and sustained demand into year-end. 

But the most interesting shift comes from software. By late November, commercial software categories began to show noticeable positive movement, particularly in on-premise infrastructure management, which outperformed prior periods across multiple weeks. Early signs of strength also appeared in cybersecurity and data backup solutions, suggesting businesses are rebalancing budgets towards foundational resilience tools as 2026 planning intensifies. 

This software inflection point is an important signal for distributors who have spent much of 2025 riding a hardware-driven cycle. If current trends continue, software could reassert itself as a more meaningful contributor in early 2026.

Business channels continue their climb, with retail maintaining momentum

Another consistent theme through all November forums is the resilience of the channel. Business-facing routes, SMR, corporate resellers, and e-tailer business, are all gaining ground as Q4 progresses, reversing much of the sluggishness seen mid-year. Retail chains and consumer e-tailers, meanwhile, continue to perform strongly, maintaining momentum built earlier in the quarter.

This broad channel uplift aligns neatly with the country-level rebound, reinforcing that the Q4 acceleration is not concentrated in isolated pockets but distributed across multiple routes to market.

Category breakouts: LFDs, UPS and UC stand out

Several specialist categories delivered standout performances:

• Large Format Displays (LFDs) surged in Spain, Germany and Poland, with Spain performing far above both 2023 and 2024 levels and breaking typical seasonal patterns. High-brightness and interactive formats are also outperforming index levels across multiple markets. 
• Unified Communications saw strong results in October feeding into early November, with nearly all countries above index levels and Spain again the standout performer—a theme carried across multiple webinars. 
• UPS markets showed a mixed year but finally pivoted upwards in Week 46, especially in higher-protection online and line-interactive segments. Lower-end offline models continued to decline, signalling a shift towards more robust power protection in enterprise environments. 

These outliers reinforce the broader Q4 story: the uplift is multi-category, not dependent on any single driver.

A confident close to the year

Across every dataset, November’s message is clear: European IT distribution is closing 2025 with real strength. Spain and Germany are the headline performers, but the breadth of recovery across markets, channels and categories is what makes this Q4 particularly significant. With software showing the first signs of a rebound and high-value segments accelerating, partners and vendors alike are entering the final stretch of 2025 with more confidence than at any other point this year.

For more on these and other IT channel trends, tune into CONTEXT’s weekly IT Industry Forum webinars. Register here.