Press releases

Introduction 

European IT distribution revenues rose 13.6% year on year in Q3 2026, nearly seven percentage points ahead of CONTEXT’s previous forecast. Infrastructure revenues climbed 42%, more than double the 20% forecast, as AI investment and rising memory and storage costs lifted the value of enterprise systems. The picture was different for peripherals, where revenues fell 2% as businesses prioritised infrastructure and core computing. 

CONTEXT now expects distribution revenues to grow 8% in Q4, up from the 4.6% projected in August. That puts 2026 on course for double-digit growth. The forecast for 2027 is 4.2%, with infrastructure expected to make the largest contribution and software and services providing further support. 

The gap between revenue and unit sales is likely to persist into 2027. Higher component prices can lift revenues even as buyers postpone orders or cut the number of devices they purchase. Smaller businesses are particularly exposed. The outlook covers European distribution excluding Russia and uses fixed exchange rates. Growth rates are year on year. 

PCs 

PC unit sales fell 8.2% in Q3 while revenues rose nearly 8%. Distribution prices were around 20% higher, reflecting component shortages. The channel was also up against a strong comparison with 2025, when businesses were still replacing large numbers of devices. 

CONTEXT expects a steep fall in mobile computing units in Q4 as older, cheaper stock runs out and education demand eases following local tenders in Q3. The midpoint forecast puts mobile computing unit sales down 4.4% for 2026 and 7.5% for 2027. Higher prices should still leave mobile computing revenues slightly positive in 2027. 

Desktop unit sales are also expected to fall in both years, with revenues turning negative in 2027. Smaller businesses are replacing devices as needed and putting fleet upgrades on hold. Easier comparisons and a potential easing of memory shortages could help mobile volumes start to recover in Q4 2027. Demand for high-end workstations and notebooks that can run AI workloads locally offers some support at the premium end. 

Enterprise Networking 

Enterprise networking revenues increased 13.6% in Q3. Wireless led with 31.3% growth, while switching rose 7.5%. Wi-Fi 7 revenues more than tripled, and investment in data centre connectivity continued to support demand for faster switches. 

CONTEXT expects wireless revenue growth to remain in double digits in Q4, with enterprise networking on course to finish 2026 up between 9.0% and 9.8%. The range for 2027 is 9.1% to 12.3%. Network upgrades brought forward ahead of price rises could leave fewer projects later in the year, although data centre investment and replacement of equipment installed during the pandemic should support demand. 

The baseline outlook moves from low double-digit growth early in 2027 to single digits in the second half. Wi-Fi 7 deployments should continue, although some early adopters may delay projects as attention turns to Wi-Fi 8. 

Server & Storage 

Enterprise server revenues rose 110.9% in Q3 even as unit sales fell 23%. Enterprise storage system revenues increased 66.6%. Higher RAM and SSD costs contributed to the rise in system prices, while AI inference and demand for higher-specification configurations also supported revenues. 

A strong Q4 would put full-year 2026 server revenue growth between 82.3% and 84.1% and enterprise storage system growth between 48.7% and 51.0%. CONTEXT expects growth to continue in 2027 at a slower pace. The server midpoint is 20.9%, with a range of 17.4% to 24.4%. Enterprise storage system revenues are forecast to rise between 28.2% and 34.9%. 

Demand for local and on-premises infrastructure should benefit as businesses bring AI inference closer to their data and review where sensitive workloads are hosted. Tight component allocations and long lead times can still delay complete systems, even when most of the hardware for a project is available. 

Displays 

Desktop monitor unit sales fell 4.3% in Q3 and revenues declined 5.9% as weaker demand put pressure on prices. Large-format displays fared worse, with units down 6.8% and revenues down 15.1% against a strong quarter a year earlier. 

The Q4 midpoint forecast puts monitor units down 0.9% and large-format display units down 3.1%. For 2026 as a whole, monitor units are expected to be almost flat, with revenues down 2%. Large-format display units are forecast to grow 1.8%, but price reductions, particularly for interactive boards, are expected to leave revenues down 3.6%. 

Fresh business budgets could help monitors from spring 2027. The outlook for large-format displays is weaker in the first half, with fewer public education programmes to support orders. CONTEXT expects easier comparisons to help large-format display volumes return to growth in Q3 2027. 

Print 

Print hardware unit sales fell 3.2% in Q3, while revenues slipped just 0.3%. The growing share of refillable ink tank printers lifted the average selling price of print hardware by around 3% to €165. Tank printers accounted for 28% of inkjet units and 49% of inkjet revenues. 

CONTEXT expects print hardware units to fall 1.3% in Q4. For the full year, the midpoint forecast puts hardware units down 2.8% and revenues down 1.3%. Both are expected to be close to flat in 2027, with units down 0.4% and revenues down 0.3%. 

Consumables face a longer adjustment. Q3 units fell 5.5% and revenues declined 2.2%. Higher-yield refillable systems mean customers buy replacements less often, while compatible cartridges continue to compete with branded products. CONTEXT expects the fall in consumables units to ease from 5.5% in 2026 to 3% in 2027. 

Unified Communications 

Collaboration headset sales fell 6.4% by volume in Q3 and 3% by revenue as businesses extended replacement cycles. Standalone conference camera revenues rose around 12%, supported by investment in smaller meeting rooms and demand for all-in-one video bars. 

CONTEXT expects headsets to improve in 2027 after two years of falling sales, with higher-value wireless models supporting revenues. Standalone conference cameras face a tougher comparison after a strong 2026. Many rooms have already been equipped, and stock accumulated ahead of price rises may lead to promotions. 

Overall collaboration video revenues are forecast to grow 5.8% in 2026 and 0.2% in 2027 at the midpoint. Standalone cameras drove growth in 2026. Next year, bundled video solutions and room systems are expected to return to modest revenue growth as some larger meeting-room projects resume. 

Accessories 

Accessory unit sales fell 13.4% in Q3 and revenues declined 13.7%, both below CONTEXT’s previous pessimistic scenario. Higher spending on PCs and components left businesses with less to spend on keyboards, mice, cases and docks. 

For Q4, the midpoint forecast puts keyboard units down 3.5%, mice down 1.5% and docking stations down 16.3%. Consumer demand for gaming and ergonomic products should provide some support, although business purchasing remains weak. Carry case units fell 16.4% in Q3 as buyers kept cases for longer and fewer businesses placed bulk orders. 

The outlook improves gradually in 2027 as budgets reset and comparisons ease. CONTEXT expects keyboard and mouse volumes to return to growth in Q2. Docking station volumes are forecast to turn positive in Q1 and grow 6.9% in Q3 against a particularly weak 2026 comparison. 

Cybersecurity 

Cybersecurity software revenues rose 9.2% in Q3, ahead of the 4.9% increase recorded in the year to date. Compliance, governance and threat detection spending helped drive the quarter. As companies deploy AI agents, the need to authenticate those agents and control their access is also creating demand for identity security. 

CONTEXT expects software revenues to keep growing in 2027, although competition from AI infrastructure spending will limit the pace. The move from upfront contracts to monthly subscriptions will spread invoiced revenue across the year and reduce the traditional renewal peaks. Cloud marketplaces and consolidation around larger security platforms will also put pressure on traditional distribution. 

Hardware revenues rose 13.8% in Q3 as distributors fulfilled backlogged orders and customers replaced older equipment. Growth is expected to slow as those backlogs clear and higher prices encourage some buyers to defer replacements or switch to virtual firewalls and cloud services. Specialist appliances for industrial and critical infrastructure should remain a source of demand. 

Storage Components HDDs and SSDs 

HDD unit sales fell 12.9% in Q3, but revenues rose around 79%. The average price per gigabyte increased 77%, and total capacity sold rose 18%. Nearline drives bucked the broader volume decline, with units up 16% and revenues up around 153% as enterprise demand for capacity held up. 

The HDD midpoint forecast puts Q4 units down 11.7% and revenues up 33.8%. For 2026, units are forecast to fall 8.3% and revenues to rise 47%. In 2027, the unit decline is expected to narrow to 4.2% and revenue growth to slow to 3.4% as the channel starts comparing against 2026’s price spikes. 

SSD unit sales fell 61.4% in Q3 while revenues rose 10.8%. Data centre SSD revenues more than tripled despite unit sales roughly halving. External and consumer drives came under much greater pressure as buyers cut back or chose lower-capacity models. 

CONTEXT expects SSD volumes to fall 36% in Q4, with revenues up 10.9%. The full-year forecast for 2026 is a 46.7% fall in units and 25.4% revenue growth. The 2027 midpoint points to a recovery from Q2, with full-year units up 6.6% and revenues up 29.9%. 

Conclusion 

Infrastructure is expected to lead European distribution growth in 2027, even against the high revenues recorded in 2026. AI inference, faster networking and demand for locally hosted systems should sustain investment, while compliance and identity requirements support cybersecurity software. 

The timing of a recovery in volumes varies by category. SSDs are expected to return to unit growth from Q2, while mobile computing may have to wait until Q4. How quickly component supply eases and businesses release new budgets will help determine which parts of the channel recover first.